Military Forecast

Military Risk

Active conflict fatalities, regional contagion from neighbors, strategic geographic vulnerability.

Countries scored

212

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.1/10

Above global average

High risk

Score >= 6.0

Critical

Score >= 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Active Conflict Arms Buildup Regional Contagion Strategic Vulnerability

Nuclear & Strategic Military Powers

The 9 nuclear-armed states plus key force-projecting nations — countries whose military posture shapes global security.

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Active Conflict	Arms Buildup	Regional Contagion	Strategic Vulnerability
1	Israel	8.0/10	critical	→+0.3	91	93	86	41
2	Pakistan	7.3/10	high	→0.0	82	55	77	70
3	North Korea	7.0/10	high	↑+1.0	65	50	65	84
4	Russia	7.0/10	high	→0.0	69	87	65	62
5	Turkey	6.6/10	high	→-0.1	73	47	77	60
6	India	5.5/10	elevated	→0.0	51	51	77	40
7	China	5.2/10	elevated	→0.0	46	45	86	27
8	United States	5.2/10	elevated	→+0.2	57	62	65	17
9	France	4.8/10	elevated	→+0.3	63	49	50	20
10	United Kingdom	4.3/10	moderate	→+0.2	51	51	50	20
11	South Korea	4.1/10	moderate	→-0.1	37	53	50	36
12	Japan	3.4/10	moderate	→+0.1	33	42	50	28

Upcoming Events

Scheduled events in this category with AI-generated scenario analysis.

May 28, 2026 · in 11dTaiwan Strait Military Exercise Window (PLA)Routine PLA drills — limited scope, rapid market fade — 50%

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#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Active Conflict	Arms Buildup	Regional Contagion	Strategic Vulnerability	Top Driver
1	Yemen	8.9/10	critical	→+0.1	93	50	50	82	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.3/10
2	Sudan	8.8/10	critical	→+0.1	88	50	86	91	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.1/10
3	Syria	8.8/10	critical	→-0.2	88	50	86	90	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
4	Myanmar	8.2/10	critical	→-0.2	85	86	77	79	Arms Buildup: 8.6/10
5	Israel	8.0/10	critical	→+0.3	91	93	86	41	Arms Buildup: 9.3/10
6	Libya	8.0/10	critical	→+0.3	73	77	86	86	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.6/10
7	Afghanistan	7.9/10	critical	→0.0	88	50	65	82	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.8/10
8	Palestine	7.9/10	critical	→0.0	88	50	65	81	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.8/10
9	Iran	7.7/10	critical	→0.0	93	48	86	69	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.3/10
10	Mali	7.7/10	critical	→0.0	78	69	86	76	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
11	Burkina Faso	7.6/10	critical	→0.0	74	72	86	71	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
12	South Sudan	7.6/10	critical	→+0.1	81	48	86	84	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
13	DR Congo	7.4/10	high	→+0.1	75	41	86	90	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
14	Somalia	7.4/10	high	→+0.2	87	44	65	92	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.2/10
15	Chad	7.4/10	high	→0.0	75	58	86	74	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
16	Central African Republic	7.3/10	high	→0.0	72	53	86	79	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
17	Iraq	7.3/10	high	→-0.1	82	51	77	74	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.2/10
18	Pakistan	7.3/10	high	→0.0	82	55	77	70	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.2/10
19	Ukraine	7.3/10	high	→0.0	66	100	65	67	Arms Buildup: 10.0/10
20	Niger	7.2/10	high	→0.0	77	50	86	70	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
21	Cuba	7.0/10	high	↑+0.9	75	50	50	61	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.5/10
22	Lebanon	7.0/10	high	→-0.2	80	54	65	74	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.0/10
23	North Korea	7.0/10	high	↑+1.0	65	50	65	84	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.4/10
24	Russia	7.0/10	high	→0.0	69	87	65	62	Arms Buildup: 8.7/10
25	Algeria	6.8/10	high	↑+0.6	53	91	77	60	Arms Buildup: 9.1/10
26	Nigeria	6.8/10	high	→+0.1	68	34	86	79	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
27	Burundi	6.7/10	high	→+0.1	66	65	65	73	Strategic Vulnerability: 7.3/10
28	Haiti	6.7/10	high	→0.0	73	30	50	93	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.3/10
29	Senegal	6.7/10	high	→-0.2	96	44	65	45	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.6/10
30	Republic of the Congo	6.6/10	high	→0.0	59	40	86	81	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10

See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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