Country Risk Radar

Which countries are stable, and which are cracking

40 countries that matter for markets — the big economies, the energy producers, the geopolitical flashpoints. Each one is scored across four dimensions that historically precede crises: political stability, economic stress, governance quality, and news-cycle tone.

Countries tracked

Data year: 2025

Median risk

41/100

World below long-term average

High-risk countries

Overall score ≥ 60

Trending worse

vs 2024

Active conflict monitoring

Source: UCDP GED (primary), ACLED (cross-validation)

Live conflict-event feed (UCDP GED primary, ACLED cross-validation) is wired into the pipeline. Once the feed activates, this band will surface countries with elevated real-world violence in rolling 90-day windows — independent of the slower structural indicators below.

Structural Constraints Index

Data year: 2025 · Stratfor-style framework

Five structural axes that constrain what a country can do — regardless of who governs it. Higher score = more constrained = more fragile. Based on 21 World Bank indicators + V-Dem + WGI + geographic features.

Demographic Resource Economic Geographic Institutional

#	Country	Composite	Demographic	Resource	Economic	Geographic	Institutional
1	Lebanon	7.2/10	51	95	84	54	77
2	Nigeria	6.8/10	77	63	61	62	77
3	Pakistan	6.7/10	81	82	46	45	78
4	Afghanistan	6.6/10	81	50	57	56	85
5	Yemen	6.5/10	78	50	62	48	86
6	Egypt	6.4/10	59	84	57	52	72
7	Syria	6.2/10	61	50	58	66	85
8	Saudi Arabia	5.9/10	59	76	55	53	51
9	Iran	5.4/10	44	50	46	66	78
10	Turkey	5.3/10	45	45	52	60	69

Political Instability Outlook — 24 Months

PITF methodology · Brier score: 0.05

Probability of political instability onset within 24 months, based on the Political Instability Task Force model (Goldstone et al. 2010, AJPS). Uses regime type, governance indicators, and GDELT media tone as inputs.

#	Country	Probability	Risk Level	Confidence
1	SSD	12.8%	MODERATE	30%
2	Nigeria	12.5%	MODERATE	30%
3	NER	11.9%	MODERATE	30%
4	SOM	11.9%	MODERATE	30%
5	LBR	11.6%	MODERATE	30%
6	ZWE	11.5%	MODERATE	30%
7	GIN	11.1%	MODERATE	30%
8	CAF	10.9%	MODERATE	30%
9	COD	10.6%	MODERATE	30%
10	TCD	10.6%	MODERATE	30%
11	LSO	10.6%	MODERATE	30%
12	SLE	10.3%	MODERATE	30%
13	Afghanistan	9.4%	MODERATE	30%
14	Pakistan	9.4%	MODERATE	30%
15	GNQ	9.3%	MODERATE	30%

Methodology: Logistic regression on regime type (V-Dem), governance indicators (WGI), and media tone (GDELT). Calibrated on 1955-2018 historical data. Walk-forward validated Brier score = 0.05 (lower = better). This is a statistical estimate, not a prediction of specific events.

How these scores are built

Each country gets four sub-scores on a 0-100 scale (higher = riskier):

Political — World Bank Political Stability index + V-Dem regime type.
Economic — CPI inflation + GDP growth (negative growth = stress).
Governance — World Bank governance indicators (effectiveness, rule of law, corruption).
News tone — GDELT global news-media tone average + volatility.

Overall risk = 30% political + 25% economic + 25% governance + 20% news tone. Data is annual, latest available year; trend compares the latest year to the prior year. Sources: World Bank (WGI, WDI), V-Dem Institute, GDELT 2.0. Updated monthly.

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Pair this with the forecast timeline

This page shows slow risk — where cracks are forming. The 90-day forecast shows fast risk — the scheduled events that convert that stress into market moves.

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