Frequently Asked Questions

Logicon integrates eight OSINT and commercial source connectors. Six are active in the production feature vector: UCDP GED (Uppsala Conflict Data Program — primary conflict data, 347K events) for georeferenced armed conflict data, GDELT (Global Database of Events, Tone and Language) for media event streams and sentiment, FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) for macroeconomic stress indicators, OpenSanctions for sanctions and PEP monitoring, V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) for governance indices, and World Bank for structural development indicators. ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) is available for cross-validation of conflict predictions. WGI (Worldwide Governance Indicators) is ingested for Phase 1 wiring. All sources are normalised and aligned on a common timeline.

Isotonic regression (Pool Adjacent Violators algorithm) has been implemented and validated offline, demonstrating a 20% Brier score reduction in backtesting. Production activation is pending sufficient data diversity across all regions (currently 5 of 10 regions have degenerate outcome distributions). The production ensemble output is validated directly via Brier scores (0.106 on 480 resolved predictions) and reliability diagrams.

The self-learning infrastructure is deployed: walk-forward validation harness, Page-Hinkley drift detection on prediction residuals, and candidate model comparison on common resolved questions. As forecasts resolve, the system can retrain on closed predictions and promote candidates that demonstrate a lower Brier score. The fully autonomous retraining loop — including automatic model promotion without manual intervention — is a Phase 1 deliverable currently in baseline observation.

Accuracy is measured via Brier scores rather than simple hit rates, because Brier scoring rewards well-calibrated probabilistic predictions. The current production model maintains a Brier score of approximately 0.106 across 480 retrospective predictions, which indicates strong calibration. All historical predictions and their outcomes are available in the audit trail for independent verification.

Logicon monitors 10 high-priority conflict regions spanning Eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, Central Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, the Caucasus, and Latin America. Each region has dedicated feature extraction pipelines assessing political, military, economic, and governance dimensions.

The 18-feature vector is the standardised input representation Logicon generates for each region at each time step. It covers four domains: conflict dynamics (event density, event trend, deaths trend, conflict onset), information environment (media tone, volume spike, Goldstein scale), financial stress (sanctions delta, yield spread, dollar regime, VIX level, oil volatility), and structural vulnerability (regime type, bad neighbourhood index, infant mortality, military expenditure, plus cyclical month encoding). Several features embed temporal information through their construction — for example, event trend is a 7-day/30-day ratio, and volume spike captures deviation from rolling baselines.

Every forecast is logged with its complete feature vector, model version, calibration parameters, data sources and retrieval timestamps, and the resulting probability distribution. When a prediction resolves, the outcome is recorded alongside the original reasoning chain. This provides full traceability from raw data to final probability.

Logicon uses a two-model weighted ensemble: logistic regression (60% weight) provides stable, interpretable baselines, while a decision stump forest (40% weight) captures single-feature threshold effects. A gradient boosted tree model has been implemented but is not yet active in production — its activation is a Phase 1 deliverable. Isotonic calibration has been validated offline and will be activated in the inference loop in Phase 1.

Yes. Contact us to request an evaluation account. Evaluation access includes full forecast history, audit trails, methodology documentation, and Brier score breakdowns by region and time horizon.

Logicon generates ensemble forecasts at 30-day (conflict escalation) and 90-day (stability assessment) intervals. Narrative intelligence is published at three cadences: tactical (this-week event-driven), strategic (1–3 months), and structural (6–12 months). AI-generated intelligence briefings support 30-day, 90-day, 180-day, and 365-day horizons via the briefing API.

The system uses statistical drift detection to monitor model performance over time. When the Brier score diverges from expected behavior beyond calibrated thresholds, automated alerts are triggered. Critical drift can escalate to automatic model retraining using the latest resolved predictions.

New model configurations are validated by running them in parallel with the production model without serving predictions to users. These candidate models are continuously evaluated against the active model on the same resolved questions. A candidate is promoted to production when it demonstrates a meaningfully lower Brier score across a sufficient set of common resolved questions.

All incoming data passes through NaN filters, deduplication checks, and temporal alignment validation. UCDP GED events are the primary conflict source; ACLED is used for cross-validation. GDELT streams are filtered for relevance and language quality. FRED indicators are checked for revision flags. Any anomalies are logged and flagged for review.

Logicon is designed for the NATO DIANA Decision Superiority for NATO Warfighters challenge. The platform supports standard intelligence dissemination formats, provides full audit trails required for institutional accountability, and maintains data provenance records for all predictions. The architecture supports deployment in secure environments.

Logicon operates exclusively on open-source intelligence (OSINT). All data sources — UCDP GED, GDELT, FRED, and others including ACLED (cross-validation) — are publicly available. This means the platform can be deployed without classified network requirements while still delivering operationally relevant probabilistic assessments.

Country risk scores aggregate five dimensions — political stability, economic resilience, governance quality, conflict intensity, and external pressure — into a composite risk index. Each dimension draws on multiple indicators, with weights determined by the ensemble model. Scores are updated as new data arrives and re-calibrated quarterly.

Yes. Logicon exposes a RESTful API for forecast retrieval, audit trail access, and model performance metrics. The API supports JSON output compatible with standard intelligence analysis toolchains. Custom integrations can be arranged during the evaluation phase.