Geopolitical Risk Political stability, regime type, conflict proximity, sanctions exposure, and news sentiment across 250 countries.
Countries scored
214
Data year: 2025
Median risk
5.0/10
Above global average
Deteriorating
6
Rising vs last year
Nations that shape the global order — permanent UNSC members, nuclear states, and regional hegemons whose foreign policy decisions ripple worldwide.
# Country Score Level Trend Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit 1 Iran 8.2/10 critical →0.0 79 89 79 82 2 Turkey 6.8/10 high →+0.1 71 77 52 72 3 China 6.7/10 high →0.0 78 86 33 69 4 Russia 6.5/10 high →-0.1 74 63 46 79 5 Israel 6.1/10 high →+0.2 47 86 75 33 6 India 5.9/10 elevated →0.0 66 77 37 53 7 Brazil 5.0/10 elevated →+0.2 39 65 43 55 8 United States 4.2/10 moderate ↑+0.4 37 65 42 24 9 France 3.0/10 moderate →+0.1 25 50 44 21 10 United Kingdom 3.0/10 moderate →+0.1 32 50 38 16 11 Germany 2.4/10 low ↓-1.0 24 50 34 12 12 Japan 2.1/10 low →0.0 17 50 29 17
Scheduled events in this category with AI-generated scenario analysis.
May 31, 2026 · in 14d NATO Summit — Foreign Ministers Status-quo communiqué — strong rhetoric, incremental Ukraine support — 50%
Jun 7, 2026 · in 21d G7 Summit Status-quo communiqué — incremental sanctions tightening, no frozen-asset escalation — 50%
Jun 15, 2026 · in 29d UK General Election Debates Status-quo debates — no clear knockout, markets shrug — 55%
Sort by: Overall risk Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit Fastest deteriorating Alphabetical
# Country Score Level Trend Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit Top Driver 1 Yemen 8.9/10 critical →-0.1 91 87 92 88 Social Pressure: 9.2/10 2 Sudan 8.5/10 critical →0.0 88 83 82 88 Governance Deficit: 8.8/10 3 South Sudan 8.5/10 critical →0.0 85 86 81 91 Governance Deficit: 9.1/10 4 Syria 8.4/10 critical →-0.3 89 82 78 89 Regime Stability: 8.9/10 5 Chad 8.4/10 critical →0.0 78 86 88 84 Social Pressure: 8.8/10 6 Iran 8.2/10 critical →0.0 79 89 79 82 Conflict Proximity: 8.9/10 7 Somalia 8.2/10 critical →+0.2 88 67 83 90 Governance Deficit: 9.0/10 8 Afghanistan 8.1/10 critical →-0.2 89 67 80 89 Regime Stability: 8.9/10 9 Myanmar 8.1/10 critical →-0.3 89 72 74 88 Regime Stability: 8.9/10 10 Mali 7.9/10 critical →0.0 89 86 61 78 Regime Stability: 8.9/10 11 Libya 7.8/10 critical →+0.2 86 78 61 85 Regime Stability: 8.6/10 12 Niger 7.8/10 critical →-0.2 85 75 77 72 Regime Stability: 8.5/10 13 DR Congo 7.7/10 critical →-0.1 79 86 61 84 Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10 14 Palestine 7.7/10 critical →0.0 77 73 82 75 Social Pressure: 8.2/10 15 Burkina Faso 7.6/10 critical →0.0 87 86 59 69 Regime Stability: 8.7/10 16 Central African Republic 7.5/10 critical →+0.2 77 86 56 84 Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10 17 Ethiopia 7.5/10 critical →+0.2 79 86 62 74 Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10 18 Haiti 7.5/10 critical →-0.1 81 65 71 85 Governance Deficit: 8.5/10 19 Cameroon 7.4/10 high →-0.1 76 77 63 81 Governance Deficit: 8.1/10 20 Iraq 7.4/10 high →-0.2 77 71 70 80 Governance Deficit: 8.0/10 21 Burundi 7.3/10 high →0.0 77 65 68 84 Governance Deficit: 8.4/10 22 Eritrea 7.3/10 high →+0.1 82 63 58 90 Governance Deficit: 9.0/10 23 Pakistan 7.3/10 high →-0.2 79 77 58 78 Regime Stability: 7.9/10 24 Uganda 7.3/10 high →+0.1 72 77 68 75 Conflict Proximity: 7.7/10 25 Venezuela 7.3/10 high →-0.2 80 67 58 90 Governance Deficit: 9.0/10 26 Bangladesh 7.2/10 high →+0.3 84 65 63 77 Regime Stability: 8.4/10 27 Republic of the Congo 7.2/10 high →0.0 66 86 57 82 Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10 28 Guinea 7.2/10 high →-0.2 81 65 64 80 Regime Stability: 8.1/10 29 Guinea-Bissau 7.1/10 high →+0.3 77 65 63 78 Governance Deficit: 7.8/10 30 Mozambique 7.1/10 high →0.0 77 65 64 78 Governance Deficit: 7.8/10
Show all 214 countries