Live Forecasts
Active probabilistic predictions across domains
All active prediction questions with calibrated probabilities, confidence intervals, key drivers, and time horizons — scored against real outcomes as they resolve.
Significant security deterioration in Venezuela within 90 days
ForwardVEN
P = 0.47
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Venezuela within 30 days
ForwardVEN
P = 0.47
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Iran within 90 days
ForwardIRN
P = 0.38
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Iran within 30 days
ForwardIRN
P = 0.38
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Caucasus within 90 days
ForwardGEO
P = 0.19
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Caucasus within 30 days
ForwardGEO
P = 0.19
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in South China Sea within 90 days
ForwardPHL
P = 0.30
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in South China Sea within 30 days
ForwardPHL
P = 0.30
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Korean Peninsula within 90 days
ForwardPRK
P = 0.19
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Korean Peninsula within 30 days
ForwardPRK
P = 0.19
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Red Sea within 90 days
ForwardYEM
P = 0.18
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Red Sea within 30 days
ForwardYEM
P = 0.18
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Sahel within 90 days
ForwardMLI
P = 0.83
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Sahel within 30 days
ForwardMLI
P = 0.83
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Taiwan Strait within 90 days
ForwardTWN
P = 0.15
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Taiwan Strait within 30 days
ForwardTWN
P = 0.15
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Israel Lebanon within 90 days
ForwardISR
P = 0.88
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Israel Lebanon within 30 days
ForwardISR
P = 0.88
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Significant security deterioration in Ukraine within 90 days
ForwardUKR
P = 0.87
Horizon: 90 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Major conflict escalation in Ukraine within 30 days
ForwardUKR
P = 0.87
Horizon: 30 daysUpdated: 22d agoconflict
Model: Defence-domain ensembleView Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZWE within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardZWE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZAF within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardZAF
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in YEM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardYEM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VNM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardVNM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VEN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardVEN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UZB within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardUZB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in URY within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardURY
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TZA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardTZA
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TWN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardTWN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardTUR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TKM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardTKM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in THA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardTHA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TGO within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardTGO
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SYR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSYR
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SWE within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSWE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SVN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSVN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLV within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSLV
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLE within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSLE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SGP within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSGP
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SEN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSEN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SDN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSDN
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SAU within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardSAU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in RWA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardRWA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in RUS within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardRUS
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ROU within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardROU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in QAT within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardQAT
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRY within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPRY
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRK within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPRK
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in POL within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPOL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PNG within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPNG
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PER within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPER
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PAN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPAN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PAK within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardPAK
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in OMN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardOMN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NZL within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardNZL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NPL within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardNPL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NOR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardNOR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NIC within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardNIC
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NGA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardNGA
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NAM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardNAM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MYS within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMYS
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MWI within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMWI
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MOZ within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMOZ
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MNG within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMNG
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MMR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMMR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MEX within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMEX
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDG within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMDG
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardMDA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LVA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardLVA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LTU within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardLTU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBY within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardLBY
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardLBN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LAO within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardLAO
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KWT within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardKWT
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KHM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardKHM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KEN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardKEN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KAZ within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardKAZ
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JPN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardJPN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JAM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardJAM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ITA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardITA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ISR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardISR
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRQ within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardIRQ
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardIRN
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRL within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardIRL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IND within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardIND
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HTI within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardHTI
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HRV within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardHRV
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HND within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardHND
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GRC within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardGRC
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GMB within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardGMB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GIN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardGIN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GHA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardGHA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GBR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardGBR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GAB within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardGAB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ETH within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardETH
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in EST within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardEST
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ERI within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardERI
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in EGY within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardEGY
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DZA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardDZA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DNK within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardDNK
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DJI within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardDJI
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DEU within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardDEU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CZE within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCZE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CYP within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCYP
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CUB within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCUB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CRI within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCRI
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COL within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCOL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COD within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCOD
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CMR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCMR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CIV within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCIV
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CAN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCAN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CAF within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardCAF
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BWA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBWA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBRA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BLR within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBLR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BIH within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBIH
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BGD within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBGD
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BFA within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBFA
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BEN within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBEN
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BEL within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardBEL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARM within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardARM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ALB within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardALB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AGO within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardAGO
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AFG within 2 years (as of 2025)
ForwardAFG
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZWE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardZWE
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.80
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZMB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardZMB
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZAF within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardZAF
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in YEM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardYEM
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.11
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in WSM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardWSM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.02
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VUT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardVUT
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.70
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VNM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardVNM
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VGB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardVGB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.01
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VEN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardVEN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.72
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VCT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardVCT
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.02
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UZB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardUZB
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.98
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in USA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardUSA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.94
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in URY within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardURY
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.08
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UKR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardUKR
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.65
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UGA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardUGA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TZA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTZA
P = 0.08
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, media tone: neutral . logit=-2...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUV within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTUV
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.05
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTUR
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: negative . logit=-3.16
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTUN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.70
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TTO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTTO
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.05
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TON within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTON
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.98
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TLS within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTLS
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.78
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TKM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTKM
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: positive . logit=-3....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TJK within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTJK
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in THA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTHA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.98
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TGO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTGO
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TCD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTCD
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, . logit=-2.52
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TCA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardTCA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.91
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SYR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSYR
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.06
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SYC within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSYC
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.01
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SWZ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSWZ
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.13
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SWE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSWE
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.13
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SVN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSVN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.01
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SVK within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSVK
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.93
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SUR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSUR
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.71
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in STP within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSTP
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.68
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SSD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSSD
P = 0.13
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active, . logit=-1.93
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SRB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSRB
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.60
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SOM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSOM
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.18
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SMR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSMR
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.83
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLV within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSLV
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.79
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSLE
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.76
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSLB
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.72
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SGP within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSGP
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.44
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SEN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSEN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SDN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSDN
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, media tone: negative . logit=-...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SAU within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardSAU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.94
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in RWA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardRWA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.76
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in RUS within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardRUS
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.32
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ROU within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardROU
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.82
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in QAT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardQAT
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.94
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PSE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPSE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.02
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRY within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPRY
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.71
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPRT
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.02
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRK within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPRK
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.03
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in POL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPOL
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.58
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PNG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPNG
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PLW within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPLW
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.05
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PHL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPHL
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.73
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PER within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPER
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.68
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PAN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPAN
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.52
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PAK within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardPAK
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.50
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in OMN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardOMN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.03
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NZL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNZL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.89
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NRU within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNRU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.01
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NPL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNPL
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NOR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNOR
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.74
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NLD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNLD
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.99
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NIC within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNIC
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.69
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NGA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNGA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.67
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NER within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNER
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.65
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NAM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardNAM
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.79
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MYS within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMYS
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.37
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MWI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMWI
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MUS within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMUS
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.68
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MRT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMRT
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MOZ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMOZ
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-4.02
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MNG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMNG
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.88
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MNE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMNE
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MMR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMMR
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MLT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMLT
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.61
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MLI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMLI
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.93
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MKD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMKD
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.65
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MHL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMHL
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.08
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MEX within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMEX
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.68
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDV within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMDV
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.64
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMDG
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMDA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-4.07
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MCO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMCO
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.88
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MAR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardMAR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.02
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LVA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLVA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.91
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LUX within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLUX
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.86
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LTU within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLTU
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.86
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LSO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLSO
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LKA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLKA
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.63
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LCA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLCA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.03
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBY within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLBY
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.12
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLBR
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.94
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLBN
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.52
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LAO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardLAO
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.10
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KWT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKWT
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: negative . logit=-3.24
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KOR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKOR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.91
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KNA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKNA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.03
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KIR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKIR
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.11
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KHM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKHM
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KGZ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKGZ
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.71
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KEN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKEN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KAZ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardKAZ
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-4.03
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JPN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardJPN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.85
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JOR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardJOR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.98
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JAM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardJAM
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.66
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ITA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardITA
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ISR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardISR
P = 0.17
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active, . logit=-1.59
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ISL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardISL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.85
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRQ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardIRQ
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: negative . logit=-...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardIRN
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, media tone: negative . logit=-1.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardIRL
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.84
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IND within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardIND
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IDN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardIDN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HUN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardHUN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-4.04
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HTI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardHTI
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HRV within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardHRV
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.83
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HND within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardHND
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.82
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GUY within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGUY
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.75
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GTM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGTM
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GRD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGRD
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.03
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GRC within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGRC
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.78
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GNQ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGNQ
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.81
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GNB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGNB
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.80
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GMB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGMB
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GIN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGIN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.82
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GHA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGHA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GEO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGEO
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.75
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GBR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGBR
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.83
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GAB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardGAB
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FSM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardFSM
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.07
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FRA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardFRA
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.89
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FJI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardFJI
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.71
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FIN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardFIN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.86
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ETH within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardETH
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, media tone: neutral . logit=-2...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in EST within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardEST
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.93
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ESP within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardESP
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.08
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ERI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardERI
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.0...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in EGY within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardEGY
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ECU within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardECU
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.62
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DZA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardDZA
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DOM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardDOM
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.76
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DNK within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardDNK
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.87
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DMA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardDMA
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.08
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DJI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardDJI
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-4.16
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DEU within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardDEU
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.94
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CZE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCZE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.86
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CYP within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCYP
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.89
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CUB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCUB
P = 0.08
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: negative . logit=-2.49
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CRI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCRI
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.06
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CPV within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCPV
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.70
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCOM
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.78
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCOL
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.70
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCOG
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.76
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCOD
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.81
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CMR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCMR
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.80
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CIV within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCIV
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-4.25
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CHN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCHN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.96
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CHL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCHL
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CHE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCHE
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.73
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CAN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCAN
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.76
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CAF within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardCAF
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active, . logit=-2.54
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BWA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBWA
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: elevated, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.1...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BTN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBTN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.72
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBRN
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.98
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBRB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.00
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBRA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.68
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BOL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBOL
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.72
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BLZ within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBLZ
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.00
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BLR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBLR
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.81
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BIH within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBIH
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.65
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BHS within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBHS
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.00
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BHR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBHR
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BGR within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBGR
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.38
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BGD within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBGD
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BFA within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBFA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BEN within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBEN
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.95
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BEL within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBEL
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.70
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BDI within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardBDI
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AZE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardAZE
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.69
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AUT within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardAUT
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.31
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AUS within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardAUS
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-2.86
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ATG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardATG
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.97
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARM within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardARM
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.63
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardARG
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: neutral . logit=-3.60
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARE within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardARE
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.94
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AND within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardAND
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-2.89
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ALB within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardALB
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: low event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, media tone: negative . logit=-3.22
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AGO within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardAGO
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: moderate event intensity: baseline, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.77
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AFG within 2 years (as of 2017)
ForwardAFG
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 30d agoconflict
Drivers: development stress indicator: high event intensity: elevated, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent, . logit=-3.81
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZWE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardZWE
P = 0.69
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, ucdp)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZMB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardZMB
P = 0.76
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (4/8 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ZAF within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardZAF
P = 0.48
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/6 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in YEM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardYEM
P = 0.13
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/2 neighbors unstable, ucd...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in WSM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardWSM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VUT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardVUT
P = 0.35
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VNM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardVNM
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VGB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardVGB
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.02, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VEN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardVEN
P = 0.44
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in VCT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardVCT
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.13, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UZB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardUZB
P = 0.33
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in USA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardUSA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.73, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in URY within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardURY
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.61, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UKR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardUKR
P = 0.23
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.41, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/7 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in UGA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardUGA
P = 0.57
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TZA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTZA
P = 0.72
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (5/8 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUV within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTUV
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTUR
P = 0.43
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.37, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (4/8 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TUN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTUN
P = 0.27
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.18, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/2 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TTO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTTO
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TON within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTON
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.39, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TLS within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTLS
P = 0.56
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/1 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TKM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTKM
P = 0.53
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TJK within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTJK
P = 0.47
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in THA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTHA
P = 0.23
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.40, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TGO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTGO
P = 0.56
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TCD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTCD
P = 0.83
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (5/6 neighbors unstable, ucdp)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in TCA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardTCA
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.31, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SYR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSYR
P = 0.16
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (4/5 neighbors unstable, ucdp). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SYC within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSYC
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SWZ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSWZ
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, ucd...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SWE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSWE
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.70, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/2 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SVN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSVN
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.80, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SVK within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSVK
P = 0.17
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.76, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SUR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSUR
P = 0.36
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in STP within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSTP
P = 0.26
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.23, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SSD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSSD
P = 0.42
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (6/6 neighbors unstable, mixed)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SRB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSRB
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.90, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/8 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SOM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSOM
P = 0.22
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp). ...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SMR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSMR
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-2.20, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLV within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSLV
P = 0.25
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.27, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/2 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSLE
P = 0.67
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, mixed...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SLB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSLB
P = 0.38
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SGP within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSGP
P = 0.08
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.61, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SEN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSEN
P = 0.52
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/5 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SDN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSDN
P = 0.31
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (5/7 neighbors unstable, mix...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in SAU within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardSAU
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.88, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/7 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in RWA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardRWA
P = 0.52
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/4 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in RUS within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardRUS
P = 0.14
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.01, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/14 neighbors unstable...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ROU within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardROU
P = 0.19
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.64, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in QAT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardQAT
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.86, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PSE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPSE
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRY within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPRY
P = 0.35
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPRT
P = 0.10
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.41, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PRK within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPRK
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, mixed). ...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in POL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPOL
P = 0.12
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.14, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/7 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PNG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPNG
P = 0.54
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/1 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PLW within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPLW
P = 0.08
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PHL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPHL
P = 0.45
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PER within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPER
P = 0.30
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.06, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PAN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPAN
P = 0.31
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in PAK within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardPAK
P = 0.64
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in OMN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardOMN
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.33, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NZL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNZL
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.03, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NRU within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNRU
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.40, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NPL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNPL
P = 0.45
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NOR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNOR
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.70, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, w...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NLD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNLD
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.19, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NIC within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNIC
P = 0.26
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.21, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NGA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNGA
P = 0.86
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (4/4 neighbors unstable, ucdp)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NER within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNER
P = 0.40
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (5/7 neighbors unstable, ucdp). ...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in NAM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardNAM
P = 0.57
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MYS within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMYS
P = 0.21
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.49, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MWI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMWI
P = 0.58
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MUS within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMUS
P = 0.34
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MRT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMRT
P = 0.53
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MOZ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMOZ
P = 0.62
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/6 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MNG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMNG
P = 0.30
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.04, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MNE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMNE
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.75, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MMR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMMR
P = 0.12
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable, ucd...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MLT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMLT
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.88, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MLI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMLI
P = 0.33
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (4/7 neighbors unstable, mix...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MKD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMKD
P = 0.09
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.49, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MHL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMHL
P = 0.09
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, non...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MEX within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMEX
P = 0.32
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDV within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMDV
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.88, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMDG
P = 0.61
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MDA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMDA
P = 0.36
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MCO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMCO
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.61, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/1 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in MAR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardMAR
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LVA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLVA
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.61, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, w...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LUX within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLUX
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.75, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LTU within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLTU
P = 0.10
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.38, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LSO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLSO
P = 0.67
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, ucdp)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LKA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLKA
P = 0.17
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.78, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LCA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLCA
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBY within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLBY
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.38, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (3/6 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLBR
P = 0.70
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable, wgi_f...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LBN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLBN
P = 0.37
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/2 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in LAO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardLAO
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/5 neighbors unstable, mix...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KWT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKWT
P = 0.21
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.49, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KOR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKOR
P = 0.08
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.57, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KNA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKNA
P = 0.06
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KIR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKIR
P = 0.14
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, non...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KHM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKHM
P = 0.38
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KGZ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKGZ
P = 0.36
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/4 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KEN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKEN
P = 0.75
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (4/5 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in KAZ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardKAZ
P = 0.22
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.44, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JPN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardJPN
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.80, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JOR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardJOR
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (4/5 neighbors unstable, mixed). ...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in JAM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardJAM
P = 0.38
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ITA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardITA
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.57, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/6 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ISR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardISR
P = 0.10
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.41, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ISL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardISL
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.66, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRQ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardIRQ
P = 0.43
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/6 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardIRN
P = 0.49
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.12, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (5/7 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IRL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardIRL
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.19, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IND within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardIND
P = 0.47
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/6 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in IDN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardIDN
P = 0.37
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HUN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardHUN
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.28, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/7 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HTI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardHTI
P = 0.14
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, non...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HRV within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardHRV
P = 0.14
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.01, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in HND within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardHND
P = 0.33
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GUY within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGUY
P = 0.46
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GTM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGTM
P = 0.39
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/4 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GRD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGRD
P = 0.07
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, none). l...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GRC within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGRC
P = 0.11
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.25, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GNQ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGNQ
P = 0.64
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GNB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGNB
P = 0.61
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, w...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GMB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGMB
P = 0.55
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GIN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGIN
P = 0.20
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/6 neighbors unstable, mixed)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GHA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGHA
P = 0.51
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/3 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GEO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGEO
P = 0.22
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.43, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GBR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGBR
P = 0.14
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.01, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in GAB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardGAB
P = 0.10
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, ucd...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FSM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardFSM
P = 0.08
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, non...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FRA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardFRA
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.19, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/8 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FJI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardFJI
P = 0.47
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in FIN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardFIN
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.75, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, w...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ETH within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardETH
P = 0.76
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (5/6 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in EST within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardEST
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.98, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, w...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ESP within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardESP
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.45, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ERI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardERI
P = 0.10
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/3 neighbors unstable, ucd...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in EGY within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardEGY
P = 0.44
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/4 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ECU within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardECU
P = 0.29
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.07, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DZA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardDZA
P = 0.42
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/7 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DOM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardDOM
P = 0.51
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/1 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DNK within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardDNK
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.16, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DMA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardDMA
P = 0.13
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, non...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DJI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardDJI
P = 0.61
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/3 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in DEU within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardDEU
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.28, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/9 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CZE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCZE
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.66, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CYP within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCYP
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.01, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CUB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCUB
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.52, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CRI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCRI
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.24, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/2 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CPV within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCPV
P = 0.29
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.09, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCOM
P = 0.56
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCOL
P = 0.29
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.10, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCOG
P = 0.71
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (4/5 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in COD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCOD
P = 0.83
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (5/9 neighbors unstable, ucdp)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CMR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCMR
P = 0.60
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/6 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CIV within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCIV
P = 0.62
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CHN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCHN
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.01, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (5/16 neighbors unstable, ...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CHL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCHL
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.68, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/3 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CHE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCHE
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.19, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CAN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCAN
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.88, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in CAF within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardCAF
P = 0.84
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: high log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (5/6 neighbors unstable, mixed...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BWA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBWA
P = 0.54
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BTN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBTN
P = 0.34
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBRN
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.30, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/1 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBRB
P = 0.04
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.24, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BRA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBRA
P = 0.32
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/10 neighbors unstable, ucdp)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BOL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBOL
P = 0.35
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable, ucdp)....
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BLZ within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBLZ
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.08, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BLR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBLR
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.80, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/5 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BIH within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBIH
P = 0.18
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.73, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/3 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BHS within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBHS
P = 0.05
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.05, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BHR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBHR
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.45, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BGR within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBGR
P = 0.15
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.90, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BGD within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBGD
P = 0.48
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (2/2 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BFA within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBFA
P = 0.31
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: active (5/6 neighbors unstable, mix...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BEN within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBEN
P = 0.80
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: active (4/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BEL within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBEL
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.28, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in BDI within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardBDI
P = 0.53
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/3 neighbors unstable, m...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AZE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardAZE
P = 0.32
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/5 neighbors unstable, mixed)...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AUT within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardAUT
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.38, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/8 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AUS within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardAUS
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.28, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ATG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardATG
P = 0.03
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.49, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/0 neighbors unstable, n...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARM within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardARM
P = 0.25
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.31, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (3/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardARG
P = 0.24
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.37, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/5 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ARE within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardARE
P = 0.02
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.08, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (0/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AND within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardAND
P = 0.01
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-1.53, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (1/2 neighbors unstable, u...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in ALB within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardALB
P = 0.24
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: low log-z=-0.33, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (0/4 neighbors unstable,...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AGO within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardAGO
P = 0.54
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: anocracy , neighboring conflict: absent (1/4 neighbors unstable, w...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail
Political instability onset in AFG within 2 years (as of 2024)
ForwardAFG
P = 0.17
Horizon: 730 daysUpdated: 25d agoconflict
Drivers: PITF-3var (pitf-v1-3var): development stress indicator: moderate log-, regime type: stable , neighboring conflict: absent (2/6 neighbors unstable, ucd...
Model: Political instability model (PITF-aligned)View Audit Trail