Audit Explorer

Trace any prediction back to its inputs

Complete reproducibility chain for every prediction — input snapshot hash, feature vector, model version, evidence chain, and reasoning trace.

Prediction #1374

Significant security deterioration in Venezuela within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentVENopen

47.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.4730, CI=[0.4354, 0.5109] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1373

Major conflict escalation in Venezuela within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationVENopen

47.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.4730, CI=[0.4362, 0.5105] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1372

Significant security deterioration in Iran within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentIRNopen

38.4%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.3843, CI=[0.3544, 0.4160] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1371

Major conflict escalation in Iran within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationIRNopen

38.4%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.3843, CI=[0.3565, 0.4171] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1370

Significant security deterioration in Caucasus within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentGEOopen

19.0%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1898, CI=[0.1837, 0.1974] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1369

Major conflict escalation in Caucasus within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationGEOopen

19.0%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1898, CI=[0.1840, 0.1974] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1368

Significant security deterioration in South China Sea within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentPHLopen

29.5%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.2953, CI=[0.2447, 0.3177] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1367

Major conflict escalation in South China Sea within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationPHLopen

29.5%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.2953, CI=[0.2438, 0.3149] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1366

Significant security deterioration in Korean Peninsula within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentPRKopen

19.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1925, CI=[0.1854, 0.2043] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1365

Major conflict escalation in Korean Peninsula within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationPRKopen

19.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1925, CI=[0.1845, 0.2052] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1364

Significant security deterioration in Red Sea within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentYEMopen

17.7%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1765, CI=[0.1419, 0.1768] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1363

Major conflict escalation in Red Sea within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationYEMopen

17.7%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1765, CI=[0.1418, 0.1768] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:72407b26ea09804d9ed76f64b4ba5f04785cf4485ecbb4e80c9886a2a8f04384:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1362

Significant security deterioration in Sahel within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentMLIopen

83.0%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.8302, CI=[0.8155, 0.8450] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1361

Major conflict escalation in Sahel within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationMLIopen

83.0%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.8302, CI=[0.8145, 0.8453] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:6674114803e87cc1a7bd87494315379f43361ff746b6359d7e5ff7ef0fa22ddf:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1360

Significant security deterioration in Taiwan Strait within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentTWNopen

14.6%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.1457, CI=[0.1454, 0.1460] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1359

Major conflict escalation in Taiwan Strait within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationTWNopen

14.6%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:b050fec4b0fa385ffb31d38567090374ccf49d0476ae8be50a9884d4610a6167:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1358

Significant security deterioration in Israel Lebanon within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentISRopen

88.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.8830, CI=[0.8827, 0.8833] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1357

Major conflict escalation in Israel Lebanon within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationISRopen

88.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.8830, CI=[0.8827, 0.8832] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:872c476ea2d791874dd3f69d4b4bcc3fcd571eb3c12cfe54f3cb44de306fb1c2:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1356

Significant security deterioration in Ukraine within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentUKRopen

86.8%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.8683, CI=[0.8621, 0.8763] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1355

Major conflict escalation in Ukraine within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationUKRopen

86.8%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:28:20 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43

Model: defence-active-1777033693953

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033693953): P=0.8683, CI=[0.8622, 0.8764] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: gdeltTone (-, w=0.552), infantMortality (+, w=0.226), acledEventDensity (+, w=0.222) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43:gdeltTonew=0.552

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43:infantMortalityw=0.226

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:7d53efb897ae8c96ebda1ebc63bf4457d128e7f61c0662cae9b8d8f1c3887d43:acledEventDensityw=0.222

Prediction #1354

Significant security deterioration in Venezuela within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentVENopen

76.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7633, CI=[0.7505, 0.7635] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1353

Major conflict escalation in Venezuela within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationVENopen

76.3%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7633, CI=[0.7504, 0.7635] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:f90adc32bc070d552c913033771fbd257dbc5faab651edc71376ea70a4b09d4d:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1352

Significant security deterioration in Iran within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentIRNopen

75.8%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7577, CI=[0.7467, 0.7580] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1351

Major conflict escalation in Iran within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationIRNopen

75.8%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:3ab8787003b27b87c4cfc5e0c573a5b00327ef58b76a950479fe0e169f20e479:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1350

Significant security deterioration in Caucasus within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentGEOopen

69.6%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.6963, CI=[0.6851, 0.6967] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1349

Major conflict escalation in Caucasus within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationGEOopen

69.6%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.6963, CI=[0.6852, 0.6967] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:024ae6975994eae24f6f4c078ece9eed044f5f9efa8c21b2a9fe55c9fd8ba3e6:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1348

Significant security deterioration in South China Sea within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentPHLopen

74.9%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7487, CI=[0.7277, 0.7488] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1347

Major conflict escalation in South China Sea within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationPHLopen

74.9%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7487, CI=[0.7275, 0.7487] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:ee8ce008630e5c35c981557eb688f9de8684e8f398fd0721ff2c4006ee622562:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1346

Significant security deterioration in Korean Peninsula within 90 days

conflictstability-assessmentPRKopen

70.8%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 90d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7082, CI=[0.6973, 0.7122] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:monthCosw=0.280

Prediction #1345

Major conflict escalation in Korean Peninsula within 30 days

conflictconflict-escalationPRKopen

70.8%

defence-ensemble

Created: 2026-04-24 12:22:31 UTC  ·  Horizon: 30d  ·  Confidence: 1.00

Input Snapshot

Hash: 1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218

Model: defence-active-1777033346167

Reasoning

Ensemble prediction (defence-active-1777033346167): P=0.7082, CI=[0.6973, 0.7116] Blend: 60% logistic + 40% stump forest Top drivers: ucdpDeathsTrend (-, w=0.366), gdeltTone (+, w=0.354), monthCos (+, w=0.280) Missing features: none

Evidence (3)

decreases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:ucdpDeathsTrendw=0.366

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:gdeltTonew=0.354

increases_riskfeature-driverFeatureSnapshot:1c7e73e6d7510cf0194d1a0779e876c84a374aca32ac2b4c2940e6d169592218:monthCosw=0.280