What-If Scenario Explorer
Modify operational parameters to explore how changes affect escalation probability
Adjust feature vector parameters across conflict intensity, media environment, financial stress, and structural vulnerability. Each change triggers real-time inference through the production ensemble model.
Escalation Probability
Top Contributing Factors
Conflict & Security
Information Environment
Economic & Financial Stress
Structural Vulnerability
Live inference from production ensemble model. Each parameter change triggers real-time recalculation through the same logistic + decision stumps + gradient boosted trees pipeline that generates the calibrated forecasts on /forecasts. Confidence interval reflects bootstrap ensemble variance (200 iterations). Forecasts are probabilistic assessments and do not constitute actionable intelligence, legal advice, or policy recommendations.