Baltic Demonstration Scenario
Walk through the Baltic crisis scenario from the NATO DIANA challenge statement
A step-by-step walkthrough of the Baltic crisis scenario from the DIANA challenge statement, showing how Logicon processes multi-source data in real time as events unfold on NATO's Eastern Flank. Probabilities are computed live by the production ensemble model.
This demonstration is based on the Baltic crisis scenario described in the NATO DIANA Decision Superiority challenge statement. It shows how Logicon would process multi-source data as a crisis unfolds on NATO's Eastern Flank, updating escalation probability estimates in real-time as new information arrives.
How to read this page: This demonstration shows how Logicon augments the operational picture at each stage of an unfolding crisis. Logicon provides OSINT-fused probabilistic assessments using six active connectors in production: UCDP, GDELT, FRED, OpenSanctions, V-Dem, World Bank. WGI ingested for Phase 1 wiring; Conflict Forecast API integrated as external reference; ACLED used for cross-validation only. Tactical capabilities — radar classification, AIS/maritime fusion, satellite imagery, ISR/SIGINT, targeting, C2 workflows — are handled by complementary modules within the broader MSS NATO platform. Logicon is one module in a larger system, not a replacement for it.
Baseline
Grey-zone activities and rising political tensions. Allied defences bolstered on Eastern Flank. Naval force deployed in Baltic Sea. Ground troops near border. Air defence on high alert.
- GDELT continuous monitoring: media sentiment baseline established for Baltic region (feature: Media sentiment tone)
- Baseline probability computed from 18-feature production vector across 4 dimensions
- All features at observed values — no perturbations applied
- Ensemble output: Logistic Regression (60%) + Decision Stump Forest (40%)
- Force posture tracking: allied unit deployment status and readiness levels
- C2 workflow: standing defence plans activated for Eastern Flank
- Secure communications: encrypted channels established between allied HQs
- Air defence radar network: continuous surveillance coverage confirmed
Key Drivers — T+0
Probability transitions and driver attributions in this walkthrough are computed in real time by the production ensemble model from feature vector perturbations corresponding to each scripted event. The event sequence itself is scripted to follow the DIANA challenge statement; the model's response to that sequence is live engine inference. Forecasts are probabilistic assessments and do not constitute actionable intelligence, legal advice, or policy recommendations.